Data Center Upgrade from 400 Gbps to 800 Gbps and AI/ML to Drive Surge in Demand
For the past five years, the most popular switch in Cloud data centers was 12.8 Tbps (32 ports of 400 Gbps). Most Hyperscalers and Tier 2 Cloud customers enjoyed the switch’s flexibility as a Top-of-Rack switch (via a splitter) and aggregation/core switch. The 12.8 Tbps ASIC has shipped over 1.5 M switches and over 50M ports to date. 51.2 Tbps will significantly exceed those numbers as customers rapidly shift their networking infrastructure over the next several years. New workloads like AI/ML drive the need for additional networking capacity.
Figure 1: Marvell Teralynx 10 51.2T ASIC
What Makes 51.2 Tbps Special?
51.2 Tbps ASICs increase the number of lanes from 256 to 512 compared to 12.8 Tbps. They also increase the SERDES speed from 56 Gbps to 112 Gbps. Depending on topology, 51.2 Tbps can replace six to ten 12.8 Tbps in throughput by removing inter-switch links. The lower cost per gigabit of traffic makes the solution compelling for AI/ML back-end, AI/ML front-end, and traditional networking upgrades. Marvell began shipping their 51.2 Tbps Teralynx 10 ASIC in July, and Figure 1 shows an example of what these chips look like.
AI/ML and the Need For More Networking
AI/ML adds an additional growth driver for 51.2 Tbps. AI/ML adds a new back-end network and greenfield opportunity to existing facilities. Each GPU in these AI servers needs to drive 800 Gbps of traffic, and most existing data centers need a full networking upgrade to support the new AI/ML pods before they are deployed. In a typical x86 server deployment, each server led to 5-6 Ethernet switch ports. In a typical AI/ML server, each server currently leads to 12+ Ethernet switch ports. As a result, DC Switching ports will grow by 50% over the next five years.
Markets Need for Supply Chain Diversity
Cloud providers need ASIC diversity. While it is correct to state that the pandemic highlighted supply chain diversity, cloud providers have requested additional ASIC options for over a decade to ensure innovation and supply remain the same. Without competition, complacency always sets in. Multiple suppliers and offerings are needed to have a robust supply chain in ASICs. We therefore expect the market share of 51.2 Tbps to be more diversified than what we saw at 12.8 Tbps.
SONiC, the open network operating system sponsored by the Linux Foundation, further paves the way for greater hardware diversity at both the chip and system level by reducing the risks of incompatibility. Seven out of the top ten hyperscale cloud providers have adopted SONiC in some fashion and SONIiC adoption is expected to grow at a 25% CAGR.
Future Markets for 51.2 Tbps
The first adopters of 51.2 Tbps will be Cloud operators. We expect 51.2 Tbps to make its way into the enterprise market, where it will make a compelling fixed-topology core box. 51.2 Tbps will also enter the Telco markets to support DCI. Telco operators can achieve significant densities of 400/800 Gbps ZR/ZR+ with 51.2 Tbps. The technologies used in 51.2 Tbps all provide the groundwork for future generations of ASICs with the lessons learned of doubling the number of lanes and increasing the SERDES speed.